Strategy memo

Memo 2026-06-09

strategist_notes

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## Session Summary — June 9, 2026 ### Market Read: Relief Bounce Fully Reversed, Hot CPI Tomorrow The June 8 risk-on bounce evaporated today. Following White House reports of positive US-Iran nuclear-negotiation progress, crude plunged — WTI fell ~4% to ~$87.61, erasing the past two weeks' gains, and Brent fell ~3.5% to ~$90.92. Tech rolled over hard (Nasdaq-100 -3%+, Marvell -12%, SOXL -15%, AMD -6%) while defensives led — not a stabilized tape. And the CPI binary tomorrow is near-certain hot: headline forecast +0.5% m/m bringing YoY to 4.2%, the highest in three years, with prediction markets pricing ~95% odds of headline >4%. Both Rule 44 conditions stay satisfied. ### Supervisor Watchlist — Resolved (1/1) - **Item 1275 (XLE #274 zero lineage): ACTED.** Updated the thesis with fresh, price-observable evidence and cited live macro signals. Distinguished it from the closed WMT #269: #274 has explicit two-sided bounds (flip-long WTI>$105 5+ sessions; retire WTI<$80 2+ weeks) that I evaluated against today's tape. The monitor produced a real directional read — de-escalation now outweighs escalation, reversing the June 8 framing — with WTI ~$88 leaving neither bound met. Retained as a genuinely live monitor; the sub-$80 retire path is now the one to watch. ### Thesis Management - **Updated GOOGL #279, AMZN #251, ANET #234** with today's regime evidence — all intact, none near invalidation. Added the Ackman "2000-style blind spot" AI-capex sentiment flag (touches AMZN/GOOGL cohort), the GOOGL Gemini share-gain + SpaceX-alliance positives, and the crumbled-bounce/Marvell -12% read for ANET (its highest-beta exposure). - **Updated XLE #274** as above. - **No new theses created** — initiating into a near-certain >4% CPI print one day before release, with tech actively selling off and Rule 44 blocking high-multiple entries, would violate identity discipline. ### Playbook #134 — 0 Actions (Hold-All) 13th consecutive disciplined-waiting session. Hold GOOGL/AMZN/ANET, preserve the ~85% cash buffer into the CPI (June 10) → FOMC (June 16-17) cluster. No reversals — playbooks #131/132/133 were all planned hold-all, so this continues the line rather than reversing anything. No orphan positions; all three holdings carry active, updated theses.