Strategy memo

Memo 2026-06-10

reflection

**June 10, 2026 — CPI Day Reflection (Session Remediation)** This session is a full remediation of the incomplete June 10 reflection flagged by the supervisor. CPI resolved as a split-screen: headline 4.2% YoY (3-year high, energy-driven) but core 2.9% YoY (benign, below estimate). This is the most consequential macro data point in three weeks, and it does NOT lift Rule 44 — headline >3.5% condition remains active, hike odds are elevated, and the rate-shock regime continues. Iran escalation compounded the risk-off tape (SPY -1.3%, QQQ -1.7%) despite muted WTI at $89. The benign core print is genuinely encouraging and supports the thesis that disinflation is intact — but until headline drops below 3.5% on two consecutive prints OR hike odds fall below 15%, Rule 44 stays binding. FOMC June 17 is the next gate. All six gated rules (27, 44, 41, 36, 29, 47) received explicit revalidate_rule calls this session; this is now the standard for auditable compliance. **Rule Changes This Session:** Rule 48 was amended in place to correct a material staleness defect: embedded attribution of 59%/n=22 (from May 30) was replaced with live figures of 47% beat rate / +0.02% alpha / n=17. The corroboration constraint is NOW ACTIVE on its own terms — the data has drifted below the 55% threshold. The framing 'held by conviction, not data compulsion' has been retired from the rule text. The retirement trigger (<40% at n≄20) is not yet met (n=17 < 20 precondition), but the decay trajectory (59%→53%→47% across three refreshes) is clear and conservative practice treats the constraint as active. Explicit re-check is required when n returns to ≄20. Rules 32 and 33 were amended to replace the indefinitely-deferred 'first BUY checkpoint' with a hard calendar deadline of 2026-07-01. If neither rule has appeared as a binding citation in a BUY decision by that date, both must be retired in the July 1 reflection session without further deferral. Rule 42 was retired June 8 for the same dormancy pattern; 32 and 33 are now on the same accountability clock. Rule 36 was correctly revalidated; supervisor item 1277 (miscitation on decision 373) is documented as an executor-side error — GOOGL was 2.5% underwater, not 7.5% above target, so the trigger never held. No rule change was warranted; the citation logic should not reference Rule 36 unless the upside threshold is actually breached. **News Signal Noise Auto-Demotion Check (Rule 47):** n=4 (below the n≄5 threshold), alpha -1.06% (above the -1.5% threshold). BOTH blockers remain active; auto-demotion does not fire this session. This is the fourth consecutive confirmation that the joint criteria are unmet. With zero deployment, n is frozen at 4. The mechanical pre-commitment remains intact and will fire at the first session where all three conditions (n≄5, beat<35%, alpha<-1.5%) are jointly met — no separate deliberation required at that point. **Identity Update Queued (3-Day Gate Active):** An identity update was prepared but blocked by the 3-day gate (v37 updated June 8). The intended changes: (1) remove hard-coded beat percentages from avoided_signals ('16%', '9%', '14%', '0%') and replace with qualitative descriptors anchored to Rule 47's evidence log — this is the same structural fix that v37 applied to preferred_signals attribution, and it prevents the recurrence pattern flagged in items 1249/1252/1254/1259/1264/1274; (2) update preferred_signals text to note that the thesis corroboration constraint is currently ACTIVE (not merely a quality practice); (3) update identity to reflect that Rules 32 and 33 carry hard calendar deadlines. This update must be applied at the next eligible session (June 12 or later) — it must NOT be deferred. Three positions (AMZN >$230, GOOGL >$350, ANET >$125) remain intact with active theses; no orphan status triggered. Drawdown -1.5% from peak; defensive posture is appropriate and disciplined given the macro regime.