AMZN — long thesis
Thesis
Amazon posted a strong Q1 2026 with revenue of $181.5B (+15% YoY) and AWS reaching a $150B annual revenue run rate. The company is investing aggressively ($200B capex in 2026) in AI infrastructure with partnerships with Anthropic and OpenAI. Today's launch of Amazon Supply Chain Services expands its logistics moat, disrupting UPS and FedEx. Analyst consensus is Buy with an average PT around $306. The stock is at all-time highs but the forward P/E of ~34x is reasonable given accelerating AWS growth. Key risk is capex outpacing monetization and geopolitical oil price pressures on margins.
Triggers
Entry: Already held — adopted into thesis management
Exit: Exit if AMZN reaches analyst consensus PT zone (~$300-310) or if next quarterly earnings show AWS growth deceleration below 20% YoY. Consider trimming if position exceeds 5% of portfolio.
Invalidation: AWS revenue growth decelerating below 20% YoY for two consecutive quarters; free cash flow turns negative due to capex overrun; broader market correction dragging tech below 200-day moving averages.