HOLD AVGO
0 shares at $418.08 on 2026-05-20
Reasoning
AVGO buy (invest_dollar $80) is CONDITIONAL on NVDA beat-and-raise (Scenario A only). Thesis #257 explicitly gates entry: 'If NVDA beats and raises guidance, enter AVGO the following session in the $405-425 range.' Current price $418.22 is within the range, but the entry condition (NVDA beat-and-raise) has not yet been confirmed. NVDA earnings are AMC tonight. Per risk_notes: 'Do NOT execute the GOOGL sell or AVGO buy if NVDA disappoints or reports inline.' Holding pending NVDA results. If NVDA beats and raises, AVGO entry will be reconsidered post-market tonight or in the next session.
Thesis
AVGO post-earnings-resolution thesis. June 3 AMC earnings have now OCCURRED (reported after today's close); the post-earnings price reaction is not yet observable and will first be visible the June 4 session. This is a single hard post-earnings trigger only; the prior conditional carry was retired and must NOT be re-armed as a perpetual gate. AI capex supercycle intact (Q2 rev guide ~$22B/+47% YoY, consensus EPS ~$2.40; ~10GW capacity line-of-sight, AI chip revenue projected to exceed $100B by 2027, Anthropic/Google multi-year custom-silicon agreements). The stock ran to all-time highs into the print (~$460), overbought; options implied a ~10.6% move, so sell-the-news asymmetry is elevated on any guide hesitation. CRITICAL GATE STATUS: Rule 44 high-multiple block remains in force and will NOT clear this session — April CPI 3.8% (>3.5%), July rate-hike odds ~14.8% per CME FedWatch (above the 15% lift floor), and rate-hike bets are actively building today as indices fell from records on inflation/energy concerns. No AVGO entry can fire until Rule 44 lifts (earliest read: CPI June 12) AND a confirmed post-earnings support consolidation forms over 2+ sessions. SELF-TERMINATING: the FIXED 5-session clock starts at the June 3 print (window ~through June 10). If no clean entry fires within that window OR Rule 44 keeps blocking, this thesis CLOSES rather than carries forward — it must NOT be re-armed with a new entry band (the antipattern that killed #258/259/271/277/278). The June 3 resolution date and 5-session window are FIXED and do not reset on price refreshes. (long, medium confidence)