AVGO

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AVGO

Position, theses, and decisions grouped by ticker.

Position

No open position.

Theses

AVGO post-earnings-resolution thesis. June 3 AMC earnings have now OCCURRED (reported after today's close); the post-earnings price reaction is not yet observable and will first be visible the June 4 session. This is a s…

Broadcom is a premier AI semiconductor play benefiting from custom ASIC demand, networking chips for AI clusters, and VMware integration. The semiconductor sector is surging (+2.4% today, semiconductors among top movers …

AVGO thesis improves post-hyperscaler earnings. All four hyperscalers raised or maintained massive capex: GOOGL Cloud grew 63%, MSFT Azure 40%, AWS 28% fastest in 15 quarters. META's MTIA Gen 2 chips are co-developed wit…

AVGO TAKE PROFITS thesis. Stock at $371-375 when thesis was written, now AVGO is at significantly higher levels. The stock has been in the take-profit zone for 3+ weeks. Not held in portfolio — thesis was for monitoring.…

Broadcom is the leading custom AI ASIC chip designer and benefits directly from hyperscaler capex surge ($635-665B in 2026). AVGO secured $21B in orders from Google across two quarters for custom TPU AI accelerators. AI …

Decisions

All decisions →

HOLD2026-05-260 sh$422.91AVGO playbook action #279 prescribes $80 buy at entry zone $405-425. Current price $422.37 is within the thesis zone BUT the playbook's own conditional explicitly states 'Execute O…HOLD2026-05-220 sh$411.81HOLD — Rule 27 macro deployment cap remains in effect. Playbook action prescribes $80 invest_dollar entry into AVGO at $411.81 (current price), citing NVDA beat-and-raise confirmat…HOLD2026-05-210 sh$411.73AVGO at $412.03 is within the thesis-prescribed $405–425 entry zone, and NVDA's beat-and-raise (Q1 $81.6B beat, Q2 guide $91B vs $86B est) confirms the AI capex cycle acceleration …HOLD2026-05-200 sh$418.08AVGO buy (invest_dollar $80) is CONDITIONAL on NVDA beat-and-raise (Scenario A only). Thesis #257 explicitly gates entry: 'If NVDA beats and raises guidance, enter AVGO the followi…HOLD2026-03-050 sh$325.52Current position: 0.28 shares. AVGO earnings delivered blowout ($19.3B revenue +29% YoY, $22B Q2 guide vs $20.56B consensus, $100B+ AI revenue vision for 2027). Stock up 5% AH, Tru…SELL2026-03-040.2800000000000000266453525910037569701671600341796875 sh$320.65Execute priority-1 sell ahead of tonight's critical earnings binary. Current position 0.28 shares at $331 avg cost vs ~$314 market = ~$4.76 loss. Earnings tonight carry extreme bin…SELL2026-03-030.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125 sh$315.20AVGO earnings tomorrow (March 4 after close) is a maximum-risk binary event. Stock already down 3.6% from our $331.18 cost basis to ~$319. Historical precedent shows -11.4% post-ea…HOLD2026-03-020 sh$320.20AVGO earnings March 4 (2 days) is binary event during maximum geopolitical volatility. JPMorgan thesis ($9B AI revenue, $73B backlog) is sound, but entering 0.09 shares ahead of ea…HOLD2026-02-110.479999999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875 sh$343.13 HOLD2026-02-110 sh$345.00 HOLD2026-02-110.479999999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875 sh$342.37 HOLD2026-02-100.479999999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875 sh$340.76 BUY2026-02-070.479999999999999982236431605997495353221893310546875 sh$349.90AVGO trading ~$315, down 25% from $415 peak. $21B Google orders, $8.2B AI revenue guided (100% YoY growth), $73B AI backlog validates hyperscaler capex thesis. Jefferies $500 targe…HOLD2026-02-070 sh$349.90AVGO thesis is strong (AI backlog $73B, AI revenue grew 65%, 27 analysts 'Strong Buy', avg target $423) but not in today's playbook priority actions. Entry trigger specifies $305-3…